This article first appeared in the May edition of the magazine since when Starman, A’Ali, Lope Y Fernandez, Nando Parrado, Space Blues, Supremacy and Ubettabelieveit have been represented by winners.
A glance at the first-crop sires market suggests that the race for the 2025 title is done and dusted. At odds of 1/3, Starman is the overwhelming choice to fire in the most winners and become the latest leading freshman sire off the Tally-Ho Stud production line.
Therein lies one of the pivotal factors in Paddy Power’s pricing. The Mullingar stud, owned by Tony and Anne O’Callaghan, has few peers when it comes to launching a young stallion, with a numerically strong broodmare band to call upon alongside a depth of outside support built upon decades of respect.
Therefore when David Ward’s homebred Starman retired to stud at €17,500 as the 2021 champion sprinter having won the July Cup and Duke Of York Stakes, he attracted no fewer than 254 mares. That translates into a crop of over 200 juveniles to run for him this year, among them yearlings that sold for up to 260,000gns and plenty in the hands of good trainers. They include his own trainer Ed Walker, who has nine by the son of Dutch Art at his Kingsdown Stables in Lambourn.
“We bought a few at the sales and I have a couple for David Ward,” says Walker. “So far, I couldn’t be happier. Starman was seriously good himself and he’s passing on so many of his qualities including his power and his temperament.
“A few of them are sharper than maybe we expected. My earliest one could be a colt we bought for £25,000. He’s a really nice horse out of a Mehmas mare and he could be quite sharp.
“They’ve all got a bit of size and scope but from what I’ve seen so far from them, one of the biggest ticks is temperament, which he had himself. We didn’t really know what we had until the spring of Starman’s three-year-old year when racing got stopped [due to Covid] because he was just so laid back – as a two-year-old he was asleep. They’ve all got that good attitudes and seem to love their work.
“There are expectations with the bookies pricing him the way they have, so he is going to have a bit of pressure on him. But hopefully come Goodwood time they’ll be winning left, right and centre. He’s the first stallion I’ve trained, so I’m very excited.”
A one horse race?
Is it a one horse race though? Another branch of the O’Callaghan family, Gay and Annette O’Callaghan, stand a very legitimate choice in Supremacy at their Yeomanstown Stud in County Kildare. Successful in the Middle Park Stakes, he is first son to stud of Mehmas, himself one of the prepotent influences within the current juvenile scene.
With a powerfully commercial profile, breeders flocked to Supremacy at an opening fee of €12,500, resulting in over 120 two-year-olds including those in the hands of such adept two-year-olds handlers as Wesley Ward, Karl Burke, Andrew Balding and his own trainer Clive Cox. Paddy Power have responded by installing him at 7/2.
Beyond Starman and Supremacy, it’s 14/1 bar, a price that doesn’t necessarily provide justice to the quality on offer.
For instance, first blood has gone to Darley’s Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Space Blues (right), who fired in a winner on the first day of the Irish turf Flat season in Power Blue. The Adrian Murray-trained colt was well-backed to make a winning debut in the 5f maiden that has thrown up Bucanero Fuerte and Arizona Blaze in recent years and looked a smart colt in the making when powering home by over three lengths.
He is one of 118 foals bred off a first-year fee of €17,500 by Space Blues, whose first yearlings sold for up to €420,000. A tough horse whose wins also included the Prix Maurice de Gheest and Prix de la Foret, Space Blues comes across as a typical one by his sire Dubawi, which is perhaps no surprise given he’s also a member of Dubawi’s own extended family. Interestingly, Power Blue is inbred 2×3 to Dubawi and therefore three times to the Sunbittern family.
There could also be several sharp ones among the first crop of St Mark’s Basilica (16/1) if the early chat is any indication. The son of Siyouni was the most accomplished among the 2022 intake, a Dewhurst Stakes winner who went on to win the Poule d’Essai des Poulains, Prix du Jockey Club, Eclipse Stakes and Irish Champion Stakes at three, and duly stood his first season for Coolmore at €65,000. He’s benefitted from the support of a number of successful international breeders; they include Ecurie des Monceaux who were rewarded at Arqana last August as the vendor of a €1.7 million filly out of its blue hen Prudenzia.
Also available at 16/1 is Palace Pier. Darley’s son of Kingman was a brilliant miler whose nine wins included five at the top level. It’s also worth bearing in mind that he was unbeaten at two.
Palace Pier commenced his stud career at £55,000 and has 111 two-year-olds to run. Another smart miling son of Kingman, March Hare Stud’s Roseman, also has runners this year.
Lope Y Fernandez retired to the National Stud in Newmarket with the support of a strong partnership behind him, something that has stood him in good stead; he has approximately 100 two-year-olds including four that sold for north of 100,000gns as yearlings.
He was Group 1-placed on five occasions at three and four but was also a high-class two-year-old. If his progeny follow suit, then he could well be making a mark from midsummer onwards.
Lope Y Fernandez shares his sire, Lope De Vega, with the Irish National Stud’s Lucky Vega. A Group 1-winning two-year-old himself, some encouragement surely can be taken from the rapid start that he has made in Australia (see panel).
The sharpest among this group, however, is Newsells Park Stud’s A’Ali, a high-priced breezer who backed up his price tag by landing the Norfolk Stakes, Prix Robert Papin and Flying Childers Stakes as a juvenile. Also a Group 2 winner over 5f in the Sapphire Stakes at three, he has 75 two-year-olds on the ground, among them a colt knocked down for 200,000gns to Anthony Stroud on behalf of KHK Racing. Expect his progeny to be plying their trade early.
Sharp and fast is also the profile when it comes to Ubettabelieveit, another high-class breezer who went on to win the Flying Childers Stakes. The Mickley Stud stallion also has around 75 two-year-olds in his first crop, giving him enough ammunition to become the next productive sire son of Kodiac. He is priced at 50/1 alongside his paternal half-brother Nando Parrado, winner of the Coventry Stakes.
Capital Stud’s Mill Reef Stakes winner Alkumait (250/1), a Showcasing half-brother to Chaldean, is another who appeals as the type to throw early stock.
Nor should Chapel Stud’s Bangkok be underestimated. The Group 2-winning son of Australia doesn’t have numbers on his side but he has been supported with some quality mares by King Power Racing and the resulting foals are housed with the likes of Andrew Balding.
Among the Group 1 winners at stud across Europe, Darley’s Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere and Poule d’Essai des Poulains Victor Ludorum found favour at the sales, where his progeny sold for up to €420,000, and is well represented in British and Irish yards. German hopes, meanwhile, rest on the regally-bred Japan, the 2019 Juddmonte International and Grand Prix de Paris winner who stands at Gestut Etzean.
FIRST-CROP SIRE MARKET 2025
1/2 – STARMAN
7/2 – SUPREMACY
8/1 – SPACE BLUES
10/1 – ST MARK’S BASILICA
16/1 – LUCKY VEGA
20/1 – A’ALI, LOPE Y FERNANDEZ , PALACE PIER
50/1 – UBETTABELIEVEIT
66/1 – NANDO PARRADO, VICTOR LUDORUM
250/1 – ALKUMAIT, BANGKOK, JAPAN
Courtesy of Paddy Power
“He’s lighting up the world”
Dispense with the crystal ball. When it comes to the prospects of Lucky Vega (left), it could be argued that some of the guesswork has already been taken out.
A very good two-year-old himself who won the Phoenix Stakes for Zhang Yuesheng and Jessica Harrington, the son of Lope De Vega was retired midway through his three-year-old season to take up stud duty at his owner’s Yulong Stud in Australia. Fast forward to this year and he has already thrown two stakes horses in that first southern hemisphere crop. They include the hardy filly Within The Law, who has rattled off wins in the Group 2 Sweet Embrace Stakes, Inglis Banner 2yo Stakes (a restricted Listed race) and ATC Inglis Nursery (also a restricted Listed race) for trainer Bjorn Baker.
As a result, Lucky Vega has already flown past the A$1 million mark for the season in earnings and into second on the Australian first-crop sires’ list behind Ole Kirk and ahead of Wootton Bassett (who qualifies as an Australian freshman sire).
Lucky Vega serves the northern hemisphere season under the Yulong banner at the Irish National Stud. Priced at between €15,000 and his current level of €12,500, he has been busy throughout, in part due to the strong support afforded to him by Yulong; Zhang Yuesheng sent the horse around 30 mares in his first season, among them the dam of multiple Group 1 winner Alcohol Free, and more 60 in his second, including Group 1 producer Khor Sheed.
That kind of belief allied with a depth of outside support that resulted in a first European crop of around 100 foals would be enough in itself to make him appealing at 20/1 to lift the first-crop sires’ title. Add in the recent Australian results and confidence is understandably running high.
“He is lighting up the world down under in Australia,” says Paul Curran of Yulong Investments. “He boasts some huge statistics from what we would say was a relatively moderate number of mares in his first crop. He’s already had a Group 2 winner in Within The Law and the colt Vega For Luck [Listed-placed] is another extremely exciting prospect who Mr Zhang purchased privately in
the past few weeks. There are three individual winners from seven runners, two stakes-placed horses and one stakes winner – an incredible return on just seven runners so far. How can you
not be excited about how his two-year-olds will go here in the Northern Hemisphere?”
He adds: “The Australian market has reflected what the buyers see in this stallion. Since his run
of good results on the track everyone seems to want to buy one. A homebred filly of ours recently sold for a record price of A$380,000 at the Inglis Premier Yearling Sale. The week before that we sold another homebred filly for A$340,000 at the Classic Yearling Sale in Sydney. His sales average for 2025 in Australia currently stands at A$162,000. They’re astronomical returns for a breeder considering his service fee in his first year was A$21,000.”
Irish National Stud chief executive Cathal Beale echoes those views.
“There’s no doubt that Lucky Vega has been getting stock in his own likeness,” he says. “The one
trait he instils is great movement, which is one of his best traits.
“We recently sent an email notice out to all our clients with photos of four yearlings that sold strongly in Australia last week and any of the four could be Lucky Vega at that age.”
Australian results don’t always translate to this part of the world but in this instance it’s so far so good, with the Yulong team happy with what they’re seeing so far here. Seven of his yearlings through the ring last year made six figures led by a pair of 180,000gns colts who were knocked down to Yulong and Maxi Joorabchian with trainer George Scott.
“A few of our homebreds are coming to the fore already,” says Curran. “We have a very nice colt by him out of Bubbling Up named Boiling Over who will be one of our earliest runners. He is in training with Karl Burke, who talks very highly about him. He was prepped at Baroda Stud last year and all the word from David Cox and the team there was he works to please and has a great mind, so it’s no surprise he’s pleasing Karl so well.
“Another homebred that we are sweet on is a colt out of Listentome, who is currently in pre-training at George Peckham’s in Newmarket but will soon head to his new life in training with John Gosden. George really likes the colt and says he has a fantastic mind.
“Away from the homebreds, we have a few who were purchased by Mr Zhang that are catching the attention There is a colt named Knights Charge out of Aimhirgin Lass with Roger Varian. Roger sees him as a late spring, early summer horse – he is doing everything right and we are really happy with how well he is doing.
“Another one that we purchased who is doing really well is a colt out of Song Of Time named Time Squared who is with Jamie Insole and Dr Richard Newland. He looks again one of our more forward ones so far. I spoke to Jamie about him recently and said he has a fantastic mind
and really likes doing his work. We purchased him as a foal at Goffs from a very good breeder in Irene Sheldt and he has always been a beautiful colt.”
In what is a pivotal season for the stallion roster at the Irish National Stud, the operation also houses another promising first-crop sire in Nando Parrado. The sharp son of Kodiac has over 100 two-year-olds with which to go to war with this season including several with Clive Cox, who saddled the horse to win the Coventry Stakes and run placed in the Prix Morny and Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. Richard Hannon, Richard Fahey, Eve Johnson Houghton and Charlie Fellowes are among the other trainers with Nando Parrado juveniles.
“I see that Nando Parrado has five Donny rockets entered in the upcoming Goffs Breeze-Up Sale,” says Beale. “I’m told they are forward, sharp and have great minds like their sire and grandsire.
“The word has been extremely positive and given Kodiac’s ability to consistently upgrade stock, we are really excited about Nando Parrado.”
What do the experts think?
With the breeze-up sales fast approaching, this is one sector where early opinions on young sires are quickly formed. The breeze-up community aren’t shy when it comes to such matters and as we’ve seen in recent years when the likes of Night Of Thunder and Blue Point were the recipients of an early buzz, they rarely get it wrong.
Eddie Linehan, Lackendarra Stables
“I have a lovely Palace Pier colt heading to the Tattersalls Craven Sale. I’ve very happy with him, he has a super temperament and will be a lovely colt for the second half of the season.
“I’ve also got a Nando Parrado filly heading to the Guineas Sale. She’s a gorgeous big filly who is showing a lot of natural speed and has a great temperament as well.”
Willie Browne, Mocklershill
“The one that jumps out at me is St Mark’s Basilica. I’m pre-training quite a few and have a couple to breeze, and they’re pretty obvious at the moment. I went to see him at Coolmore off the back of what I have at home and have booked a mare. I was very impressed with him – he’s a real, quality horse and a great walker. The ones I have by him are similar, they are all a type. They have speed and they want to please.”
Norman Williamson, Oak Tree Stud
“I’ve got a St Mark’s Basilica colt going to the Craven. He’s a fast, sharp-looking two-year-old. He’s very strong, built like a tank and an amazing mover. I was listening to what Aidan O’Brien was saying about his two-year-olds by the horse the other day and it sounds like their temperaments are very good – my lad has a temperament to die for. He’s now got to go and do it on the day but we like what we see.
“I have a lovely colt by Maxfield going to Arqana. I saw one breeze like a bullet at OBS the other day [where his progeny sold for up to $1.25 million]. I bought my fella at Keeneland. He’s a big, good-looking horse with a great hip and good temperament, and I think he could be one for either turf or dirt.
“I’ve also got a very nice colt by Starman. I bought him at the last sale at Goffs. He’s got an outstanding temperament, nothing bothers him and he wants to please. He’s a beautiful type, a very good mover but he’s big, so he’s waiting for Tatts Ireland. Like his sire he stands over a lot of ground.”
Roger Marley, Church Farm Stables
“We have a colt going to Doncaster by Ubettabelieveit, who we also had here. He looks to go ok – he’s sharp and precocious-looking.”
Michael Fitzpatrick, Kilminfoyle House Stud
“I have two by Lope Y Fernandez for the earlier sales – a filly going to the Craven and a colt going to Doncaster – and I genuinely like both of them.
“The colt is a strong sort who looks sharp and early. The filly will be more one for 7f. She has a lot of quality and goes really well. She’s lovely.”
Sarah O’Connell, Longways Stables
“We are only starting to step up their work so it’s early days yet.
“We have two colts by Space Blues, one for the Craven and one for Doncaster. Both seem precocious. The colt for the Craven is out of an Exceed And Excel mare, so you’d expect plenty of speed there. He looks like he could be very smart.
“We have two by A’Ali, both sharp, forward types. The colt for the Craven is out of a black-type performer. I would imagine he’ll be out early.
“The Supremacy we have is a strong, good-looking filly with a nice pedigree. She heads to the Craven. She goes well but will need a bit of time.
“We also have three Starman colts, one to breeze and two in pre-training. These have unbelievable temperaments, pure dudes to do anything with. These three have size, scope and strength.”
George Peckham
“Our A’Ali filly out of Luminesce is a strong, compact, good mover with a good attitude. She looks very precocious and is doing everything right so far. A’Ali was also a breeze-up purchase and proved to be an early type, winning the Norfolk impressively after only one previous start and going on to win another two Group 2’s as a two-year-old as well as progressing to being a Group 2 winner at three and being placed in a Group 1. The dam was a winning two-year-old herself and an own sister to Group 2 winner Polly Pott. Therefore, I would like to hope this filly will be seen on the track soon after the sale and hopefully winning!
“Our Starman out of Merry Banter is another sharp, precocious, attractive and athletic filly. Starman was a very progressive sprinter, culminating in winning the July Cup and two further Group 1 placings. The mare was incredibly tough and hardy, winning seven times and being placed 22 times including in Listed company. This filly has developed and strengthened and is looking like a real two-year-old type.”
