In last month’s column, I undertook some top line analysis on how the makeup of Europe’s stallion population has changed over the years. Looking at the relevant movement in the number of staying sires versus speed sires showed that with the advent of much bigger book sizes, the number of speed sires – those with a stamina index of eight furlongs and under – stood at 425 in 2000 and that their number peaked at 456 in 2004. However, since then that has fallen year on year down to 222 in 2023. That was a massive 48 per cent reduction, despite the number of individual runners sired by the 222 being slightly higher.
Counterintuitively, staying sires, if anything, show a very slightly positive 25-year trend and one that peaked in the early 2010s. Moreover, the average number of runners per staying sire has risen from 47 in the year 2000 to a high of 80 in the mid 2010s and has been just shy of that maximum in the past three completed seasons at 77, 74 and 76. So in the first five seasons of the millennium compared to the most recent five, runners by speed sires have risen by nine per cent while runners by their stamina-producing counterparts are up by nearly 50 per cent. So where is the problem?
Let’s take a look at the quality of horses winning at the highest level in Britain and Ireland in the past 25 years. Using the Timeform scale we note that there have been 11 top-class (Timeform 130 or higher) horses that have won at Group 1 level at a mile and a quarter or further in the five seasons from 2020 to 2024. And their average rating stands at 131.4. For the five years at the front end of our sample, from 2000 to 2004, there were 13 Group 1 winners rated 130-plus and their average was 133.8.
The turn-of-the-century group are certainly full of quality with Dubai Millennium (140) leading Montjeu (137) and Sakhee (136), plus Sinndar, Fantastic Light and Galileo all on 134. Only one horse from the 2020 to 2024 cohort would make this 134-plus line-up and that is the 137-rated Baaeed. We must also acknowledge that the millennium cohort of 13 featured five sons of the great Sadler’s Wells in Montjeu, Galileo, High Chaparral, Doyen and Kayf Tara, whereas the latter group came from years beyond the period when Galileo was in his pomp, his sole Group 1-winning 130-plus rated horse since 2020 being six-time Group 1 winner and dual Gold Cup scorer Kyprios.
The effect of a dominant super sire like a Sadler’s Wells or a Galileo must come into the equation. Since Galileo’s reign as champion sire came to a natural end when he passed the mantle to his son Frankel in 2021, it wasn’t the most ridiculous thought that Frankel would be very hard to surpass going forward, given the wide variety in his runners’ aptitudes ranging from Guineas to Gold Cup winners and the fact that he pumps out stakes winners at a superb rate of around 17 per cent from runners. But that has not been the case with Dubawi winning the title in 2022 before Frankel took it back a year later. Last year, speed influence Dark Angel was an unlikely winner, and this season looks like being Night Of Thunder’s year, so we will have had four different title holders since Galileo’s 12 years at the top, the last eleven consecutively.
The super sire effect aside, there is an observable decline in the average ratings of Group 1 winners at ten furlongs and above in Britain and Ireland since 2000. The best year was 2000 (129.9) and the two worst years have been 2023 and 2024, both with an average rating of 123.7.
Overall, the trend suggests a four pound decline over the 25-year period. It goes without saying that we must assume Timeform have maintained the level of their ratings from year to year and that the ratings remain comparable across long time spans.
Turning our attention to Group 1 winners in Britain and Ireland at up to a mile, we can see that there is a positive trend, the average Timeform rating climbing by about two pounds in the 25-year period. This cohort, unlike its ten furlong-plus counterpart, includes two-year-old Group 1 winners, so by definition its average Timeform ratings are lower, coming in at 120.9, between five and six pounds lower.
However, there have been a handful of outstanding years, such as 2015 which featured the 132-rated Muhaarar, who swept the Commonwealth Cup, July Cup and British Champions Sprint. He was augmented by that year’s Nunthorpe Stakes heroine Mecca’s Angel, who earned a 129 rating from Timeform, plus the Diamond Jubilee Stakes scorer Undrafted (126) and Sprint Cup hero Twilight Son (125).
Not to be outdone by their elders, Air Force Blue notched up a Group 1 treble in the Phoenix, National and Dewhurst Stakes, a body of work that earned him a relatively high mark of 128, while Shalaa received 123 for his Middle Park Stakes victory and Minding 120 for her Moyglare Stud Stakes success.
2017 was also a bountiful year for the shorter-distance runners, led by King’s Stand Stakes winner Lady Aurelia (133) plus Harry Angel (132), who won the July Cup and Sprint Cup, and the 130-rated Marsha, who notched a career-defining performance in the Nunthorpe Stakes.
The average sprint ratings do suggest that the quality of speedsters in the five seasons up to and including 2024 are on the low side, but by themselves do not yet constitute a downward trend in the context of the 25-year period. To summarise, while sprint sires have halved in the period, their total number of runners is up a little and the ratings of the best runners in the group are pretty stable.
Meanwhile, the number of runners by staying sires have greatly increased, but their combined quality has declined by a few pounds. Naturally there will be many factors at play and the above serves only to understand the headline numbers. It is clear that it is a complex issue that requires more research and consultation to understand and articulate the problem that needs to be addressed.
