This analysis will look at the major sales during the 2025 European breeze-up season, namely the Tattersalls Craven, Goffs UK, Tattersalls Guineas, Arqana May and Tattersalls Ireland Sales.
I will start by giving an overview of the broader market performance, before delving into the relationship between breeze time and sales performance, stallion performance, pinhooking sources, how cheaply purchased yearlings performed vs more costly purchases and then finally looking at sales performance by month foaled.
Before beginning, a few minor housekeeping points to note:
- All financial figures have been converted to GBP using constant exchange rates (€1= £0.85, $1=£0.75, 1gns=£1.05).
- Average prices, unless explicitly stated, only look at those lots that did sell (be it in the ring or privately, in line with how the sales companies typically report these figures).
- Pinhooking multiple is defined as sales price as a breezer divided by yearling purchase cost (i.e. a £25,000 yearling purchase sold for £100,000 = 100/25 = 4x pinhooking multiple).
- Gross profit is defined as sales price as a breezer less yearling purchase cost (i.e. a £25,000 yearling purchase that sold for £100,000 = 100 – 25 = £75,000 gross profit).
- Any horse that was vendored or not sold as a yearling is not included in any pinhooking data or calculations.
Market Overview
The 2025 European breeze-up season delivered notable gains despite a reduction in volume. A total of 875 lots were offered, representing a year-on-year decline of 6.5%, yet overall turnover increased significantly to £70.5 million, compared with £57.9 million in 2024, with this growth driven by increases in average price, which reached £97,000 up from £77,000 the previous year.
The clearance rate also improved, rising to 84.9% from 80.1%, benefitting from the reduction in lots offered.
One of the most striking features of the season was the strength at the top end, following on from an incredibly strong top end at last autumn’s yearling sales. A total of 56 horses achieved sale prices of £250,000 or more, compared with 38 last year. The mid-market also showed resilience at the premier sales, namely the Arqana May and Tattersalls Craven auctions where the average price – excluding the top 20 lots – approached £100,000.
In contrast, the lower end of the market remained under pressure. At the Tattersalls Ireland and Guineas Sales, average prices (again excluding the top 20 lots) increased only marginally to £33,000 and £30,000 respectively, with medians of £26,000 and £24,000. These figures suggest limited profitability for many vendors once acquisition and keep costs are considered.
Times
The clock plays an important role in breeze-up purchase decisions, and one would expect there to be a relationship between how fast a horse breezes and how it performs in the sales ring. The correlation coefficient is a statistical measure that quantifies the strength and direction of a relationship between two variables. In this case, we examine how a horse’s breeze rank (according to a set of published times seen by the author) relates to its sale price rank. A coefficient of 0 indicates no relationship, while 1 indicates a perfect positive relationship, where the fastest breezer always achieves the highest price.
Looking only at lots that sold, the correlation between breeze rank and sale rank ranged from 0.57 to 0.63 across the five major sales, indicating a moderately strong relationship. That it’s not perfectly correlated is expected since buyers also consider factors such as style, gallop-out and stride analysis during the breeze, alongside your traditional variables such as pedigree and conformation.
What is also notable is the narrow range, suggesting the clock carries largely consistent weight/value across all sales.
Of the top 100 selling horses, 73 clocked within the top 60 of their respective sale. At the lower end, among the bottom 200 sold lots, nearly 55% recorded times in the slowest 60.
Stallion Performance
Kodi Bear deserves mention as all 22 of his offered progeny sold
Offspring of 152 different stallions went through the ring across the five sales, with Sioux Nation leading by volume (47 offered) and posting a strong 85% clearance rate. Mehmas (41/80%), Havana Grey (38/87%), Starman (34/92%), and Cotai Glory (26/81%) rounded out the top five. Kodi Bear deserves mention as all 22 of his offered progeny sold while he also posted the third-highest average pinhooking multiple (7.4x), behind only Cotai Glory (9.3x) and Coulsty (8.7x).
Looking at the highest average sales prices for stallions with five or more offerings, the top end was dominated by elite sires commanding premium cover fees, namely Night Of Thunder (£484,000), Too Darn Hot (£283,000), Siyouni (£229,000), Wootton Bassett (£219,000), and St Mark’s Basilica (£218,000). Just behind was Havana Grey, whose 38 sold averaged £193,000, an exceptional return for a stallion who stood for just £6,000 when this crop was conceived, and justified by his strong record on both the track and the breeze-up circuit in recent seasons.
Pinhook Sources
Of the breeze-up horses offered, 632 (72%) were purchased as yearlings, with another 111 having failed to sell as yearlings before being offered at the breeze-ups. Part 1 of the Tattersalls Ireland September Sale was the leading source of yearling pinhooks (87 lots), followed by Tattersalls October Book 2 (74) and the Keeneland September Sale in Kentucky (68), the latter highlighting a willingness to travel for stock.
Tattersalls October Book 1 (£291,000) and the Arqana August Sale (£224,000) came out on top by average sales price, but both would have carried high yearling investments given their premier status. The best average pinhooking multiples (for sources with five or more lots) came from the Fasig-Tipton October (5.0x), Goffs February (4.7x), and Tattersalls Ireland September Part 2 Sales (4.6x), reaffirming that the cheaper yearlings who can be sourced at these lesser sales can provide stronger upside potential from a multiples perspective.
Expensive vs Inexpensive Yearlings
Operating leverage is a commonly used term in financial analysis, referring to the relationship between a company’s cost base and its revenue. A business with a high proportion of fixed costs is said to have high operating leverage, meaning profits can grow significantly as revenue increases, because many costs remain constant. This concept is highly relevant to pinhooking: it costs roughly the same to keep a good (or expensive) horse as it does a moderate one.
Of the 632 yearlings reoffered at the breeze-ups, 66% were classified as inexpensive (£40,000 or less), 25% medium (£40,000–£80,000), and 9% expensive (over £80,000).
In terms of multiples, inexpensive yearlings outperformed (4.2x) compared with both medium and expensive, which were both broadly similar at 2.5x and 2.6x respectively. However, gross profits rose with yearling cost: £39,000 (inexpensive), £81,000 (medium), and £173,000 (expensive). When you factor in keep costs, and being cognisant of the aforementioned point that it costs the same to keep an expensive horse as a cheap one, the profit gap would only widen further in favour of the expensively bought yearlings.
The Tattersalls Guineas Breeze-Up Sale illustrated the risks associated with high levels operating leverage, with 103 of 107 pinhooks at that sale falling in the inexpensive bracket, yet yielding an average gross profit of just £22,000 – marginally above preparation costs and thus leaving little or no actual profits.
Month Foaled
Given that the breeze-up season takes place early in a horse’s two-year-old campaign, many consignors select stock they believe are early enough types for each sale. What may be surprising is that January foals recorded the lowest average sales price (£79,000) and gross profit (£43,000), while May foals posted the highest overall figures (£114,000 and £87,000 respectively); it must be noted, however, that January and May foals provided the smallest sample size, with 85% of horses offered at the breeze-up sales foaled between February and April.
At the Tattersalls Craven Sale, only four of the 11 May foals catalogued were offered, highlighting the difficulty of presenting later-foaled horses early. One exception was Mocklershill’s Acclamation colt, who sold to Godolphin for 1.4 million guineas. At the Goffs Breeze-Up Sale in Doncaster, earlier foals excelled with January and February foals fielding average sales prices of £116,000 and £97,000. May foals lagged at £36,000.
Later sales showed stronger performance for May foals. At the Arqana May Sale, May-borns held up well with an average of £156,000, though still trailed behind February (£234,000) and March (£168,000). At Tattersalls Ireland, May foals were the best-performing group (£84,000), followed by February foals (£73,000), suggesting that later-season sales may offer a more favourable window for later-born horses to mature and realise their potential.
Conclusion
Overall, the 2025 European breeze-up season was strong with positive trends seen across most sales, largely driven by the continued strength at the top of the market, while the mid-to-lower tiers remained more challenging. The analysis above touches on several data points I think are relevant, but it represents only a portion of the wider picture. Given the significant number of variables that influence a horse’s performance in the sales ring, and the good levels of data now available, the data set can be tailored to provide more specific insights. Ultimately, while I firmly believe horsemanship and the ability to judge a horse’s physical remain the most critical factors in achieving sustained profitability in bloodstock, I have strong conviction that data can serve as a valuable tool to support decision-making, particularly in areas such as sourcing of stock or which sale to target.
About the author
Ronan Breslin is an experienced banking and finance professional, having worked in both Dublin and London. A UCD Bachelor of Commerce graduate and fully qualified Chartered Accountant, he is also a lifelong horse racing enthusiast. Ronan is currently exploring opportunities to apply his corporate finance skillset to the bloodstock industry, in areas such as cash flow forecasting and budgeting, foreign exchange strategy, cost analysis, financing solutions and providing data-driven insights like those presented in this article.
Feel free to get in touch at ronantbreslin@gmail.com
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent any employer or affiliated entity; the content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute professional advice.
