It’s a tough gig writing these monthly columns as my personality is always upon the ‘glass half full’ philosophy, so it’s difficult to read the recently published Return of Mares and think that it’s not the glass that should be the concern but more the emptying bottle! Let’s deal with the facts, then, and try and convince after. Whilst we cannot claim to have a vineyard yet to rely upon for guaranteed supply to refill glasses, there are several wine merchants that we are developing long-term deals with to ensure the party goes on.

The foal crop in 2024 is down by 6% at 4,074 foals, that’s 282 less than last year, but of even more concern are this year’s covering figures which are 10% less than 2023 and will inevitably convert to a further reduction in births for 2025. If we assumed that this year’s 6% or maybe 7% was repeated, the industry is looking at a foal crop number of around 3,800.

Does this matter you might ask? Well, emphatically yes for all sorts of reasons, the first of which is the race programme – not enough horses lead to small field sizes, leading to uncompetitive racing, leading to an uncompelling product, leading to lack of interest from the punter, leading to a decrease in betting turnover, which all results in lower returns for the levy and less income from media rights payments, with the ultimate outcome of less prize-money  and then the domino effect is in play!

The racing industry requires a sustainable supply line of horses to deliver a racing programme that is relevant and retains public attraction and interest. I was told by one major racecourse group executive that if Britain cannot supply these, then horses can be bought in from other markets. Well, good luck with that – Ireland similarly has a foal crop 6% down and coverings 15% down, so the direction of travel is clear.

The other train heading down the track – and it’s been here for too many years – is stallion book sizes. Yes, it’s a free market and choice must remain for breeders in this respect, but it is clear for several reasons that the current practices aren’t good for the breed and breeders in turn. Having stallions with large book sizes creates less demand for others, less diversity in the breed, and greater polarisation in the marketplace.

So, what is the TBA doing about this? Plenty, you’ll be pleased to hear, mostly being delivered through intervention and incentive. The Great British Bonus (GBB) is the best example, having transformed the perception and value of fillies in just over four years, with average sale prices up by 17%, encouraging the breeding, buying, racing and retention of British-bred fillies.

The first GBB graduates are now producing their own GBB fillies, ensuring successful racemares are retained in Britain for breeding and producing the next generation of winners on the track. This strategic intervention has created a secure footing on which the British broodmare band can start to rebuild and in ten years’ time will demonstrate improved quality amongst these ranks.

GBBPlus launched with the specific objective of encouraging the breeding of ten-furlong and above horses, with breeders being rewarded in the sales ring and on the racecourse with double GBB prizes for winners at these distances. This part of the scheme is restricted to stallions that stand at £50k or less and even though it was only launched in August, it was encouraging to see there were several front-rank trainers shopping specifically for these fillies at the yearling sales. If you have a mare that suits a high-quality middle-distance horse, then be sure to join the club – you will be well rewarded.

Readers may ask – where’s the proof that all this is working? GBB provides its own audited confirmed numbers, but the TBA has also been working away for ten years in the National Hunt sector to prove the case of intervention and incentive, through the Elite Mares’ Scheme (an increase from 150 to 350 in that time) and then NHMOPS and now GBB to stimulate NH foal production. GBBPlus is also working here to reward horses that jump. This year there are 1,092 foals specifically bred for either NH or dual-purpose racing, that’s over 100% increase in just ten years.

Yes, this all takes time and maybe we must experience further losses before the lights turn back to green, but the TBA is committed to delivering a robust and sustainable industry and a diverse horse population for a compelling race programme. Remember, Amazon started as an online bookstore from the garage in Jeff Bezos’ home in Bellevue, Washington!

Happy Christmas and the best of New Years to you all.