The Keeneland September Sale still had six days to run when its total sales smashed through last year’s record figure. Receipts of $411,749,500 had made the 2024 edition the highest-grossing thoroughbred auction in the world, but it didn’t take long for that accolade to be consigned to history, with notification that a new record would be forthcoming as early as the conclusion of Book 3.
As far as Europe is concerned, results from this season’s curtain-raisers, the Arqana August, Goffs Premier and Tattersalls Somerville Sales, have offered optimism for the autumn ahead. There was strong competition for what the market perceives as the better horses and in turn, each sale returned a healthy bump in the average and median price, in some instances to record levels. Granted, some of the lesser types struggled but that is nothing new and undoubtedly several will go on to prove the market wrong on the track.
What unfolded at Keeneland last month, however, took matters to another level.
The final aggregate of $531,520,400, including private sales, was just one of several records set during the two weeks. The average across the five books finished at $175,807, up 17 per cent from 2024.
There were 56 yearlings who made a million dollars or more, between them sold to 31 different buyers. They were headed by a $3.3 million Gun Runner colt bought by MV Magnier and Peter Brant’s White Birch Farm, but the group also included a $2 million Into Mischief colt sold during Book 3, traditionally the domain of middlemarket buyers. As such, $2 million was a record price for that particular book; last year’s corresponding top mark was $900,000.
“It’s incredible,” agent Mike Ryan told the Keeneland press team. “I don’t think we’ve seen anything like this since Keeneland July in the ‘80s with the likes of Sheikh Mohammed and Robert Sangster.”
So what’s driving this remarkable enthusiasm? A key is undoubtedly the major tax incentive signed into law by President Trump earlier this year. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which was passed by Congress in early July, makes permanent 100% bonus depreciation. That provision was part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which originally included a phase-out schedule that made bonus depreciation 40% in 2025, 20% in 2026 and completely phased out by 2027. Now it will stay at 100%, retroactive to January 20 of this year. That means trainers, owners, breeders and farm operators can now deduct the full cost of key investments, such as horses, barns and equipment, in the same year that those investments are made. Suddenly, investment in the American thoroughbred business is more attractive and accessible.
A taste of what was to come at Keeneland had earlier been on show in August at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Sale in New York, at which no fewer than 25 yearlings made $1 million or more and a
record average of $626,366 was set.
All that might seem a mile away when it comes to this side of the pond but there is some welcome relevance to our market in the possibility that it will alleviate any potential ramifications emanating from the US trade tariffs introduced by Trump back in the spring.
The participation of American-based buyers in the European yearling market has intensified in recent years to the point that Arqana and Goffs are happy to lay on planes out of the US for such buyers wishing to attend their sales. Tattersalls, meanwhile, has long been a happy hunting ground for Mike Ryan as the purchaser of top-flight performers such as Newspaperofrecord, Digital Age and Dynamic Pricing, winner of this year’s Grade 1 Just A Game Stakes. Ryan was one of around 20 individual American buying groups welcomed by Tattersalls to last year’s October Sale, making the team’s nine promotional trips to the US in 2024 worthwhile.
As a result, there has been some anxiety over how this year’s yearling market might be affected by the tariffs, under which horses carrying the ‘GB’ suffix are subject to a ten per cent charge upon entry into the US and those carrying either ‘IRE’ or ‘FR’ are subject to 20 per cent.
The waters were tested in August by Arqana’s flagship yearling auction, traditionally an event well attended by American buyers. Tariffs were undoubtedly on the mind of buyers but plenty of them participated aggressively none the less, among them Mike Repole, Ben Gowans, Kenny McPeek, Mike Akers, Justin Casse, Solis/Litt and Ramiro Restrepo’s Marquee Bloodstock. Several were acting with an eye of starting their purchases off in Europe, including Mike Repole and Justin Casse while those such as McPeek and Akers were planning to ship theirs straight back to the US – tariff or no tariff.
The Goffs Orby Sale is the next big test, but so far it seems a case of buyers getting on with it and absorbing the additional cost. Added to that, the strength of the American yearling trade has seen a number of domestic buyers shut out of their own market; if the chat is to be believed, then several of those in question have signalled their intention to shop in Europe instead. So while the potential effects of the tariffs still shouldn’t be underestimated, perhaps they won’t be so detrimental as originally anticipated. Let’s hope.
