Given that this month’s issue marks the 20th anniversary of Owner Breeder magazine, it is perhaps a good opportunity to ponder on some of the structural changes that have taken place since 2004 among European stallions as well as looking back at some of the stars of 2004.
It seems that with each passing generation of stallions there is always debate about increasing crop sizes and what implications there are for the breed. In 2004 it was a live issue and if proponents of smaller book sizes were worried then, they will be horrified now.
We can gather plenty of data trends by simply comparing the leading European sires list of 2004 to the current one when they are both cut off at the same date, in this case 13th August. For the period in 2004, there were 1,791 sires with an European runner compared to this year’s 1,037. That represents a massive decline of 754 sires or 42 per cent. The 2004 group had produced 25,370 runners by mid-August while this year’s cohort have been represented by 21,815, which confirms what we all know to be true, that crop sizes have gone up while the number of individual stallions has fallen. For the record, the 2004 group of sires had an average of 14 runners apiece, considerably below the 21 of their modern-day counterparts. That’s a 50 per cent increase by the way.
We can also see a decline in the number of times a horse has competed up to mid-August, the 2004 group running an average of 4.4 times, compared to the 2024 cohort who have managed significantly fewer starts producing a 4.1 average. It is hard to argue that this particular metric is completely unrelated to the reduction in the number of stallions available to breeders today. The logic of the argument would be that many more mares are invested in individual stallions that ultimately fail. A counter argument might suggest this is in part due to there being fewer races nowadays, which at 9,510 is 16 per cent below than the 11,296 of 2004. However, that view is undermined by the fact that this year’s runners have had an average of 2.3 races to target, more than the 2.2 back in 2004.
The degree of change over the past 20 years also behoves us to modify how we evaluate stallions as the baseline metrics change. For instance, the average percentage of winners to runners by sire has fallen from 42.7 per cent in 2004 to 39.4 per cent in 2024, and among the top 20 sires, the average has declined from 39.4 per cent to 37.4 per cent. These changes might seem small, but they are nonetheless significant. Similarly, larger book sizes have led to a reduction in the average percentage of stakes winners to runners from 7.3 per cent to 7.1 per cent.
Of course not every metric is falling, and it is interesting to note that £119 million of prize-money had been distributed by mid-August in the 2004 season. That amounts to £4,711 per runner while in 2024, £174 million has so far been won, an average of £7,980 per runner. That represents an increase of 69 per cent over the 20-year period which, on the face of it, looks healthy. But when you factor in inflation, the increase of £3,269 per runner doesn’t even cover inflation in the intervening period. According to the Bank Of England, its inflation tracker tells us that £4,711 in 2004 would have the purchasing power today of £8,237, so in reality prize-money in Europe has regressed slightly and, moreover, we can be certain that costs have increased over the period.
Anyone who has a sense that the 2024 season is missing something probably have a point. When compared to the same point of the 2004 season, some of this year’s winning performances at Group 1 level in Britain have an ‘unfinished business’ vibe to them. Not all divisions have yet established a clear pecking order. This is evident from Timeform race ratings, which shows that the equivalent winners back in 2004 of British Group 1 races run so far this season posted an average Timeform rating of 124, compared to this year’s group at 121. Furthermore, only five of the 18 races, excluding the Commonwealth Cup (not yet in existence) and King Charles III Stakes (a Group 2 in 2004), have posted higher Timeform race ratings than their counterparts back in 2004.
Timeform saw fit to award higher ratings to all 2004 Classic winners, assessing Haafhd at 129 compared to Notable Speech’s 125. Attraction, the 1,000 Guineas winner got a 116, four higher than Elmalka’s 112. The 2004 Derby winner North Light at 125 was a pound better than City Of Troy, while Oaks heroine Ouija Board was rated at six pounds higher than Ezeliya. The five horses from this season with better ratings than their counterparts 20 years ago include both the QEII Jubilee Stales winner Khaadem, rated 120, four ahead of Fayr Jag, and July Cup scorer Mill Stream, whose 122 run tops Frizzante’s 120. It just goes to show that finding top-class sprinters has been an issue for a long, long time.
Kyprios’ Gold Cup, at 125, is considered superior to Papineau’s 123 20 years ago, while Rosallion (124) has three pounds to spare over Azamour in the St James’s Palace Stakes. Notable Speech, Rosallion’s arch rival for the title of Champion three-year-old miler this year, posted a one-pound better mark at 125 than Soviet Song did in the Sussex Stakes.
Other higher ranked winners from the 2004 group include Doyen (King George), Refuse To Bend (Queen Anne and Eclipse Stakes), Rakti (Prince Of Wales’s Stakes) and Favourable Terms (Nassau Stakes). And let’s not forget that both Dubawi and Shamardal emerged as the two Timeform top-rated Group 1-winning two-year-olds later in 2004. Only one horse in 2004 managed to top 130 by the end of the year, the 132-rated Doyen. At the time of writing we haven’t seen a 130 performance, but if Charyn, Notable Speech and Rosallion were to line up together one of them might just get there.
