More often than not, a stallion’s first crop of runners then to be their best, and even with the help of many more and better-bred mares many struggle to repeat what they have done with their first set of runners.
When analysing the top 20 stallions this century by percentage of stakes winners to runners, we find it is their combined first crops that have registered the most success as measured by the percentage of Stakes winners among all their combined starters. The group’s 14 per cent stakes winners among their first crops was never reached again and neither was the 8.1 per cent Group winners. It therefore behoves us to make some allowance for this phenomenon, the clues to which probably can be found in the field of epigenetics, the study of how environmental factors affect gene expression.
Of course, not all sires fall into this pattern and one that is doing his utmost not to do so is Tally-Ho Stud’s Mehmas. After Irish Champions weekend, the profile of Mehmas’s current two-year-olds is beginning to look like they may equal or even surpass his record-setting first crop of youngsters. Cast your mind back to the covid year of 2020 when Mehmas sired his record-breaking 56 juvenile winners, featuring 12 stakes horses, five stakes winners and two Group winners, including Group 1 Middle Park Stakes winner Supremacy. Well, this year he has already found 48 winners – already enough to have made him the top European sire by two-year-old-winners in some previous years, so with normal luck we can see him beating his previous best score. Moreover, with 13 stakes horses he has already surpassed his first-crop tally and has already equalled the number of Group winners and indeed Group 1 winners thanks to Scorthy Champ’s win in the Group 1 National Stakes and the victory of Aesterius in the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes.
Irish Champion’s weekend was also a boon for Wootton Bassett’s first Coolmore-sired two-year-olds. He was represented by stakes winners number five, six, seven and eight in the space of just six days to lead all European sires with a tally of eight, three ahead of stud companion No Nay Never. Houquetot won the Group 3 Prix La Rochette in the style of a potential future Group 1 winner and then Benevento took the Listed Flying Scotsman Stakes at Doncaster before Wootton Bassetts secured the two juvenile races at Leopardstown on Irish Champions day through Chantz in the Listed Ingabelle Stakes and Green Impact in the Group 2 Champions Juvenile Stakes.
Eight juvenile stakes winners is the best Wootton Bassett has ever achieved from a single crop and his five Group winners already equals last year’s haul. Remarkably, 30 of Wootton Bassett’s career total of 51 stakes winners now have earned their stakes-winner designation as two-year-olds. That’s 59 per cent of them which is not that far adrift of the 67 per cent so far recorded by two-year-old sire par excellence, No Nay Never.
Night Of Thunder is another trying to push past his excellent first-crop results and although he might not get there, he’s making a very good impression so far with both his current three-year-olds and two-year-old bred on the back of a surge in mare quality following the 22 stakes winners and 12 Group scorers that came from his first year at stud. As things stand, Night Of Thunder has nine stakes winners and five Group winners from his 2021 crop, so he has still a little ways to go.
On a brighter note, he has sired his first male Group 1 winner in the robust shape of Economics, who battled back to win the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes from Auguste Rodin. Surprisingly though, his post-race Timeform mark remains at 124p which, although the best of any colt by Night of Thunder, is still behind that of his star sprinting daughter Highfield Princess (126).
Speaking of fillies, the Kildangan Stud sire has unearthed another juvenile Group-winning daughter in the progressive shape of Desert Flower, who landed the Group 2 May Hill Stakesat Doncaster to remain unbeaten after three races. Desert Flower (Timeform 102p), together with Coolmore’s dual Group 3 scorer Fairy Godmother (112p) should ensure that Night Of Thunder is well represented in both the top juvenile filly sprint and staying categories this autumn. Although the Darley stallion has now sired a Group 1 championship colt, he remains more likely to deliver high-class fillies, his daughters accounting for 34 stakes winners compared with 15 colts and geldings. The one killer stat that best sums up Night Of Thunder so far is the 16.4 per cent stakes he gets from his elite mares and the 22.2 per cent stakes winners from among his well-bred fillies.
Of course, Night Of Thunder isn’t the only son of Dubawi now beginning to impress with his current two-year-olds. Ballylinch Stud’s New Bay, the recipient of an excellent book of mares in 2021 after his own impressive start at stud, has sired his second Group 2 Champagne Stakes winner in Bay City Roller, who looks like he’s not yet done improving and could easily give a good account of himself at Group 1 level before the season is out.
At the time of writing – just after St Leger weekend – the title of Europe’s leading sire by earnings looks like it will very much depend on what happens at the Arc meeting and should Look De Vega reestablish his standing after his Prix Niel defeat, it is probably Lope Se Vega’s race to lose. In terms of stakes winners, there are several still in the hunt headed by Dubawi (18) and then Frankel, Kingman and Sea The Stars all locked on 16 winners apiece.
On the two-year-old front, the leader by stakes winners is the aforementioned Wootton Bassett with only No Nay Never close enough to mount any sort of challenge.
Meanwhile, Mehmas has the individual-winner race in the bag as he is so far ahead of his field. He could also end up as the best by earnings, particularly if Scorthy Champ or Aesterius can add further to their earnings.
Closer to home, the Britain and Ireland title is proving a very tight affair, and it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that Galileo could steal a 13th title following the recent Group 1 successes of Content, Jan Brueghel and Kyprios. The alternatives are a second title for Dubawi or the first for Dark Angel particularly if Charyn were to annex the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes next month. A win for Dark Angel would certainly be a watershed moment. When was the last time a stallion with a stamina index less than a mile became champion sire?
