The record-breaking average price at Tattersalls October Book 1 was no doubt very welcome by vendors with big ticket yearlings to sell this year. Book 2 also benefitted from demand spilling over from Book 1 to produce its own record average. But with most European sales already concluded, the yearling market in general did not benefit. Demand at Book 1 was clearly stoked as traditional rivals Coolmore and Godolphin kept their spending at high levels while we had a new big player in Kia Joorabchian of Amo Racing, who together with partners contributed an additional £24 million to the demand side of the equation. The net result was that the average price for all yearlings sold up to and including Goffs Autumn Sale shows a 12.6 per cent from increase on last year. The average price of £74,349 is the highest it has ever been and as much as 21.6 per cent ahead of 2020 when covid affected the price equilibrium.
But this headline growth figure is very misleading as many vendors have attested to during the course of the year. When we examine the market in ten per cent segments, a more accurate and realistic picture emerges. The top ten per cent average – relating to about 500 yearlings – was £330,924 12 months ago and it rose by 27.9 per cent this year to £423,130. Meanwhile, the next ten per cent segment grew by only two per cent, and the remaining eight segments all contracted by the following percentages: 2.9, 5.9, 8.3, 11.2, 14.4, 17.5, 21.7 and 25.5 respectively.
Allied to that, production costs are also creeping upwards with average stallion fees – the main component of production costs – climbing to a new high of £27,216. That’s 3.5 per cent higher than last year which means about £920 has on average has been added to the conception fee of each of the 5,165 yearlings sold in 2024 to the end of the Goffs Autumn Sale. While most of this increase is borne by the more expensive stallions, the average fee of the cheaper sires also rose albeit only marginally.
It therefore goes without saying that very few benefitted from the increased demand at the top of the market. An average up 12.5 per cent while the accompanying conception fees rose by only 3.5 per cent quite clearly did not translate into profits all around and this is also borne out by the fall in the number of profitable yearlings compared to recent years. Their number, after an upkeep fee of £20,000 is applied, stood at 1,998 or 39 per cent of the 5,165 sold. That is the first time in four years that this metric had dipped below 40 per cent – it was 41 per cent last year and 42 per cent the year before, admittedly with the unpaid-for Saleh Al Homaizi yearlings included which in all likelihood would have been profitable anyway.
It is unsurprising that Dubawi and Frankel should top the charts by average price among those with ten or more yearlings sold. At this stage of his career, there is nothing left for Darley’s evergreen Dubawi to prove, certainly nothing that would alter buyers’ perceptions. However, there were a number of vendors this year not prepared to accept prices that the market offered them and only 14 of the 22 (64 per cent) offered were listed as sold in the end. Dubawi is still producing the goods as he leads all European sires with 25 Stakes winners this year headed by the likes of Group 1 winners Notable Speech. Moreover, he’s got another fine group of two-year-olds representing him this year, featuring Group winners Ancient Truth and Delacroix.
Frankel, meanwhile, has had one of his quieter years from his horses aged three and up, so much so that he will be relinquishing his Britain and Ireland sires title to Dark Angel in all probability. But, just like Dubawi, he’s back with a very good group of juveniles led by three Group-winning fillies including the unbeaten triple Group 1-winning European Champion two-year-old filly elect Lake Victoria. His yearlings, conceived at a fee of £200,000, still produced the highest average price/fee multiple at 3.8 of any stallion with a fee of £100k or more.
Among all the stallions in our £50,000-plus cohort, it was Night Of Thunder who delivered the best average price/fee multiple at 5.1. Produced at €75,000, the 2024 yearlings by the son of Dubawi were always going to be highly sought after as he capitalised on the quality of his 2021 crop by delivering his first ever Group 1-winning colt in the shape of Irish Champion Stakes winner Economics. And his next crop contains two outstanding fillies in Group 1 Fillies’ Mile heroine Desert Flower, plus the impressive Group 3 Albany winner Fairy Godmother.
Among the freshman sires in this fee bracket it was St Mark’s Basilica with an average profit of £108,686 that led the way from Palace Pier, who struggled a little with just 30 per cent of his yearlings making money after the £20,000 upkeep fee is levied.
We must also mention Dark Angel who, like many speed-orientated sires with a large number of yearlings coming to market, was not as commercially successful as his middle-distance counterparts. Although he netted 2.9 million guineas for his full-sister to Champion Miler-elect Charyn, there were so many on the market that just under half made a profit – which is counterintuitive considering he is certain to be Champion sire in Britain and Ireland this year. The same phenomenon applies to No Nay Never, who in recent years is proving to be perhaps the best European sire of speedy juveniles there has ever been.
The £20-£49,000 category is dominated by five really successful sires, namely Too Darn Hot, Blue Point, Mehmas, plus another Dubawi pair in New Bay and Zarak, all of whom produced six-figure averages. Once again, it is a Darley stallion, this time Too Darn Hot, that led this group by average price, while another, Blue Point, has the best average price/fee multiple at 5.1. Not only did this pair succeed in adding first-crop three-year-old Group 1 winners to their resumes, they also achieved further Group success with their second-crop two-year-olds, in Too Darn Hot’s case through Fallen Angel and Hotazhell. Meanwhile, Blue Point’s Rosallion added to his juvenile Group 1 haul and Kind Of Blue was a new Group 1 winner from the sire’s first crop.
Mehmas smashed his stud companion Kodiac’s single-season two-year-old individual winner world record with his first breed-back crop following his own record-breaking first season. More importantly, the latest Mehmas youngsters feature plenty of classy types, including three Group 1 winners in Scorthy Champ, Vertical Blue and Magnum Force. His nine two-year-old stakes winners in 2024 puts him right in the vanguard of elite European sires of juveniles, behind only Wootton Bassett (13) and Galileo (11).
The metric that has everyone excited about Zarak is his 12 per cent stakes winners to runners from mares than managed only 5.7 per cent with all other sires. He’s also added Poule d’Essai des Poulains winner Metropolitan and Grosser Preis von Baden scorer Zagrey – both new stallions in France for 2025 – to his tally of Group 1 winners. Little wonder then that he had the best proportion of profitable yearlings of his fee group (80.4 per cent) and an excellent average price/fee multiple of 4.9.
Nathaniel, who has earned a fee increase to £20,000 for 2025, leads the £10-£19,000 group of sires by average price and has also posted the best profit percentage at 73.3 per cent. The highlight of his 2024 season was his Irish Oaks heroine You Got To me who comes up for sale this month at Tattersalls December Mares Sale.
Several stallions in this cohort also had very good fee multiples, Territories leading the way with 6.6, followed by Nathaniel (5.4), Gleneagles (4.8) and Study Of Man (4.7), plus the best performing newcomer of the group Space Blues (4.1). It is no surprise that the four proven sires above have all delivered Group 1 winners during 2024.
In the sub-£10,000 category the runaway winner was Havana Grey, whose current yearlings are from his fourth crop conceived at just £6,000. He’s the only sire below £20,000 to record a six-figure average price. No fewer than 63 (91 per cent) of his 69 yearlings sold made a profit which makes him the leader among all sires with 15 or more sold. It also goes without saying that his ridiculously high average price/fee multiple of 17.3 is the best in the business.