The yearling market was never more polarised than in 2024. The top ten percent average rose by 28 per cent this year to £423,13, principally due to the aggressive investment by Kia Joorabchian and partners. But the bottom ten percent dipped by 25.5 per cent.
In between those two metrics the remaining eight ten percent segments showed us how though things really were for vendors. The second-top ten percent segment improved by only two percentage points, and the remaining seven all posted falls to the tune of: 2.9, 5.9, 8.3, 11.2, 14.4, 17.5 and 21.7 respectively. Moreover, the proportion of yearlings making at least their advertised fee plus an upkeep charge of £20,000 fee fell to 39 per cent last year, the first time in four years that particular metric had dipped below 40 per cent.
Given all of the above facts, it is bewildering that stallion studs have been so bullish with their stallion fees in the past few years. Whilst it is true that many sires in the £30,000-plus range posted strong averages last year due to the record demand at the top of the market, only a combined 58 per cent of yearlings from this cohort actually made enough to cover their conception fee plus a hypothetical £20,000 in keep charges. There are two things at play here. One, while the number of £30,000-plus stallions has not changed much over the past ten years – the number is actually down in recent years – their average fee has increased. And two, the average book size has also increased over the same period. This means that significantly more money has been invested in this market sector in the past ten years.
In 2013, the sector attracted £162 million, while last year’s yearling crop were the result of a £304 million investment, an increase of 88 per cent. The upshot is that we have a booming market for expensive nominations, but it is one that the yearling market increasingly struggles to keep pace with. As a matter of interest, the yearlings of 2025 are from a 30k-plus market that netted £367 million, a further rise of 21 per cent, and next year’s come from a market size of £381 million, which represents another four per cent increase.
From a stallion operation perspective the annual mare returns are traditionally dominated by Coolmore and Darley, who stood 21 and 22 stallions and attracted 2,593 and 2,339 mares, giving them an average of 123 and 106 respectively. Although there is a gap between the pair, this has pretty much always existed, reflecting among other things the fact that most mares reside in Ireland. What is notable about these two large organisations is that there has been a reduction in the number of stallions employed over the years from highs of 34 for Darley and 31 for Coolmore back in 2017. Consequently, the average number of mares covered has increased for each outfit, the 123 per stallion at Coolmore in both 2023 and 2024 being its highest in the past ten years, while the 106 average for Darley has not been matched in the same period.
Behind the big two, Tally-Ho Stud’s seven stallions averaged 132 mares apiece, although that is down from 147 in 2023 and 159 in 2022 for the same number of stallions. After that we have the first two British farms with Whitsbury Manor Stud delivering its highest ever number of mares and highest average at 138 from its four stallions.
Unsurprisingly, in terms of quality mares per stallion, Juddmonte have always led the way. Its average of 68 elite mares – mares that are stakes producers or stakes horses if they have no racing-age progeny – is understandably well clear of any other organisation with two or more stallions. This tally is also Juddmonte’s joint-best score since Frankel went to stud back in 2013. Ballylinch Stud, also with five stallions, is the next best by elite mares with 45, followed by the two big supermarkets of Coolmore (39) and Darley (35).
No prizes for guessing that Frankel’s 2024 book contained the highest number of elite mares at 146, 76 per cent of his total. The only other stallion scoring over 70 per cent elite mares was Dubawi on 74 whose book of mares was cut back to just over 100 last year. Coolmore’s Wootton Bassett weighed in with a second-best 128 elite mares in his fourth year in Tipperary. This gives the son of Iffraaj an average of 134 from the last four sets of mares and we have already witnessed what the first Coolmore book accomplished last year as their two-year-olds featured a world record number of stakes winners including four Group 1 scorers.
Only three more sires reached or bypassed the 100-mark. Lope De Vega’s tally of 108 elite mares is no surprise, while Gilltown Stud’s Sea the Stars covered 103. We could argue that the last of this group, Tally-Ho Stud’s Mehmas, was underpriced at €50,000 as he attracted 100 elite mares among his total of 241. This is the third consecutive year that he has passed the 100 mark, and he joins his sire’s Dark Angel and No Nay Never as the only speed sires to top 100 elite mares in the past ten years.
Since 2013, only two first-season sires have topped 100 elite mares in their inaugural year, Frankel’s 101 in 2013 marginally ahead of St Mark’s Basilica’s 100 in 2022. None of the 2024 intake of new sires got anywhere close to these totals, the best being Frankel’s son Chaldean with 75, one more than Tally-Ho’s Good Guess (74), who covered 241 mares in total – second only to his stud companion Starman’s first-season record of 259 mares two years earlier. Darley’s Native Trail (55 elite mares) and Dullingham Park Stud’s Shaquille (50) also had productive first seasons as did several others, including Modern Games (44) and Little Big Bear (41).
The record for a second-season sire stands at 112 elite mares, covered by Frankel in 2014, and ten years on it is Baaeed who has headed that particular cohort in 2024 with 63 elite mares, followed by Blackbeard’s 37. Shadwell’s Baaeed has also topped his class a year earlier with a debut book that featured 95 elite mares.
The nominations market is where it all begins, and it essentially decides the fate of many stallions. It is also the first opportunity to gauge how the yearling market might go two years later. Looking further ahead, an early metric from the 30k-plus stallions at stud this year that will inevitably have a major say on how the yearling sales play out in 2027 is that the advertised average price of a nomination is 109k compared to the 91k of the group just reviewed.
